June rainfall is likely to be below normal over most parts of the country
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall in 2023 over the country is most likely to be normal — 96-104 % of the long period average (LPA). The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for the period 1971-2020 is 870 millimetres.
Issuing a press release about the long-range forecast of the southwest monsoon on May 26, the IMD stated that quantitatively, the monsoon (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 96%of the LPA with a model error of ± 4%.
Region-wise, the southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall is most likely to be below normal over northwest India (<92% of LPA) and normal over other three broad homogeneous regions — central India, northeast India and south peninsular India. The southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the monsoon core zone consisting of most of the rainfed agriculture areas in the country is most likely to be normal.
IMD has stated that in respect of spatial distribution of the monsoon seasonal rainfall, normal to above normal rainfall is likely over most areas of south peninsular India, some areas of east-central India and many areas of northeast and extreme north India. Normal to below normal rainfall is likely over many areas of northwest India and adjoining west-central India, northern parts of the peninsular India and along the foothills of Himalayas.
In June, below normal monthly rainfall is expected over most parts of the country except some areas of south peninsular India, northwest India, extreme north India and some isolated pockets of northeast India, where above normal rainfall is expected.
In 2022, the southwest monsoon rainfall in the June-September period remained normal. According to the data from the IMD, India received 925 millimeters of rainfall, 6% above the LPA (1971-2020 period) of 880.6 mm in the June-September period. Among the four meteorologic subdivisions of the country, the rainfall deficit was the widest in the east and northeast subdivision, which received 1,124.8 mm, which is 18% below the normal of 1,367.4 mm of the LPA during June-September.
RAINFALL FROM JUNE 1 TO SEPTEMBER 30, 2022
| Cumulative rainfall (mm) | Actual | Normal | Departure (in %) from long-period average |
| East and Northeast India | 1,124.8 | 1,367.3 | -18% |
| Northwest India | 594.3 | 587.6 | 1% |
| Central India | 1,161.1 | 978 | 19% |
| South Peninsular India | 876.1 | 716.2 | 22% |
| Whole India | 925 | 868.6 | 6% |
Source: India Meteorological Department
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