In its weather report for two weeks (July 8-21), the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast revival of monsoon.
In the forecast issued on July 8, IMD stated that prevailing meteorological conditions, large-scale atmospheric features and dynamical models suggest revival of monsoon over south and east-central India from July 8 and over northwest and central India from July 10.
Moist easterly winds in the lower tropospheric levels from the Bay of Bengal are likely to establish gradually over parts of the eastern India and spread into northwest India covering Punjab and north Haryana by July 10.
Hence, from July 10, further advance of monsoon is likely in Delhi, remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, and some more parts of Punjab, Haryana, and subsequently into remaining parts of the country during July 11-12.
Rainfall for Week 1 (July 8-14)
- Scattered to widespread rainfall is very likely over the northwest India from July 10 onwards and isolated heavy rainfall is also very likely over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad & Punjab on July 11-12; Uttarakhand & west Uttar Pradesh during July 8-14; Himachal Pradesh, east Rajasthan and Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi during July 10-14.
- Fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is very likely over west Madhya Pradesh on July 10-11.
- Due to strengthening of the Southwest Monsoon winds from the Arabian Sea to west coast and likely formation of off-shore trough, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall activity with isolated heavy falls is very likely along the west coast and remaining parts of the south peninsular India during most days of the week. Isolated heavy to very heavy falls is very likely over Maharashtra & Goa, Coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana, Karnataka and Kerala & Mahe during July 8-12. Isolated extremely heavy rainfall is also likely over Konkan & Goa on July 13-14.
Rainfall for Week 2 (July 15-21)
- The Southwest Monsoon is likely to be in active phase over most parts of the country. Due to likely strengthening of the westerly winds and off-shore trough along the west coast, widespread rainfall with isolated heavy to very heavy falls is very likely along the west coast.
- Due to likely active monsoon trough at lower levels, fairly widespread to widespread rainfall with isolated heavy falls is very likely over plains of the northwest India, central and east India, and south Peninsula.
- Normal to above normal rainfall activity is likely over plains of the northwest India, central and east India and south Peninsula. Below normal rainfall activity is likely over the western Himalayan region and northeastern states.
Temperatures for Week 1 (July 8-14)
- Maximum temperatures were markedly above normal (5.1°Celsius to more) at most places over Punjab; at many places over Vidarbha; at a few places over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, west Uttar Pradesh and west Madhya Pradesh, and at isolated places over east Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh & Delhi, east Uttar Pradesh and east Madhya Pradesh; appreciably above normal (3.1°C to 5°C ) at most places over Marathwada; at many places over Gujarat region and Madhya Maharashtra; at a few places over Telangana and north interior Karnataka and at isolated places over west Rajasthan; above normal (1.6°C to 3.1°C) at most places over Gangetic West Bengal and Jharkhand; at many places over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan & Muzaffarabad, Kerala & Mahe, Assam & Meghalaya, Odisha and south interior Karnataka; at a few places over Bihar, coastal Andhra Pradesh & Yanam and Andaman & Nicobar Islands. These are near normal over remaining parts of the country.
Temperature for Week 2 (July 15-21)
- These are very likely to be near normal or above normal by about 2°Celsius over most parts of the northwest, central & adjoining east India, and near normal or below normal over remaining parts of the country.
- No heat wave likely over any part of the country during the week.