‘MMCFS suggests development of El Niño conditions during the SW monsoon season’
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that southwest monsoon seasonal (June to September) rainfall in 2026 over the country is most likely to be below normal (95-90% of the long-period average (LPA). The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for the period 1971-2020 is 87 centimetres.
On April 13, the IMD issued a press release about the long-range forecast of the southwest monsoon. The IMD stated that quantitatively, the seasonal rainfall over the country was likely to be 92% of LPA with a model error of ± 5%. The met department will issue updated forecasts for the monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May.
“At present, weak La Niña–like conditions are transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions over the equatorial Pacific. Atmospheric circulation features across the tropical Pacific remain consistent with weak La Niña–like conditions. The Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) suggests the development of El Niño conditions during the SW Monsoon season,” the IMD stated in the release.
The met department further mentioned in the release that the spatial distribution suggested that the below-normal seasonal rainfall was most likely over many parts of the country except some areas over northeast, northwest and south peninsular India, where normal to above-normal rainfall was likely.
The IMD stated that the northern hemisphere snow cover extent during the last three months (January to March) was slightly below normal. “Winter and spring snow cover extent over northern hemisphere as well as Eurasia has a general inverse relationship with the subsequent southwest monsoon seasonal rainfall over the country,” the release mentioned.
India received normal southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall in 2025. As per the data compiled by the IMD, the country received 937.2 millimetres of rainfall, which was 8% more than the LPA of 868.6 mm in the June-September period. Monsoon rainfall in the range of 19% to -19% of the LPA is considered normal.
As per the data released by the IMD, the southwest monsoon rainfall in 2025 is the fifth highest since 2001 and 38th highest since 1901.
SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL (JUNE-SEPTEMBER) 2024
| SUBDIVISION | ACTUAL (IN MM) | NORMAL (IN MM) | DEPARTURE (IN %) FROM LONG-PERIOD AVERAGE |
| East and Northeast India | 1,178.7 | 1,367.3 | -14% |
| Northwest India | 628.6 | 587.6 | 7% |
| Central India | 1,168.5 | 978 | 19% |
| South Peninsula | 815.5 | 716.2 | 14% |
| Whole India | 934.8 | 868.6 | 8% |
SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL (JUNE-SEPTEMBER) DURING LAST 5 YEARS (2021-2025)
| YEAR | ACTUAL (IN MM) | NORMAL (IN MM) | DEPARTURE (IN %) FROM LONG-PERIOD AVERAGE |
| 2025 | 937.2 | 868.6 | 8% |
| 2024 | 934.8 | 868.6 | 8% |
| 2023 | 820 | 868.6 | -6% |
| 2022 | 925 | 868.6 | 6% |
| 2021 | 874.6 | 880.6 | -1% |
Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD)
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