Met department says neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions prevail over the equatorial Pacific region
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that the southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall in 2025 over the country is most likely to be above normal — more than 104 % of the long-period average (LPA). The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for the period 1971-2020 is 87 centimetres.
On April 15, the IMD issued a press release about the long-range forecast of the southwest monsoon. The IMD stated that quantitatively, the monsoon (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 105% of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%.
“Currently, neutral El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. However, the atmospheric circulation features are similar to La Nina conditions. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), as well as other climate model forecasts, indicate that the neutral ENSO conditions are likely to continue during the monsoon season,” the IMD stated in the press release.
Region-wise, the IMD has forecast that above-normal seasonal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas over northwest, northeast and south peninsular India, where below-normal rainfall is likely. IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May.
In 2024, the southwest monsoon rainfall in the June-September period remained normal. According to the data from the IMD, India received 934.8 millimetres of rainfall, 8% above the LPA (1971-2020 period) of 868.6 mm from June to September. Among the four meteorologic subdivisions of the country, the rainfall deficit was the widest in the east-northeast subdivision, which received 1,178.7 mm of rainfall — 14% below the normal of 1,367.3 mm of the LPA from June to September.
SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL (JUNE-SEPTEMBER) 2024
| SUBDIVISION | ACTUAL (IN MM) | NORMAL (IN MM) | DEPARTURE (IN %) FROM LONG-PERIOD AVERAGE |
| East and Northeast India | 1,178.7 | 1,367.3 | -14% |
| Northwest India | 628.6 | 587.6 | 7% |
| Central India | 1,168.5 | 978 | 19% |
| South Peninsula | 815.5 | 716.2 | 14% |
| Whole India | 934.8 | 868.6 | 8% |
Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD)
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ਦੱਖਣ-ਪੱਛਮੀ ਮੌਨਸੂਨ 2025 ਪੂਰਵ-ਅਨੁਮਾਨ
दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून 2025 पूर्वानुमान