Met department says La Niña conditions are likely to develop during the second half of the monsoon season
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall in 2023 over the country is most likely to be above normal — 106 % of the long period average (LPA). The LPA of the season rainfall over the country for the period 1971-2020 is 87 centimetres.
Issuing a press release about the long-range forecast of the southwest monsoon on April 15, the IMD stated that quantitatively, the monsoon (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 106%of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%.
“Currently, moderate El Niño conditions are prevailing over the equatorial Pacific region. The latest Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS) as well as other climate model forecasts indicate that the El Niño condition is likely to weaken further to neutral El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions during the early part of the monsoon season and La Niña conditions are likely to develop during second half of monsoon season,” the IMD stated in the press release.
Region-wise, the IMD has forecast that above-normal seasonal rainfall is very likely over most parts of the country except some areas over northwest, east and northeast India, where below-normal rainfall is very likely. IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May.
In 2023, the southwest monsoon rainfall in the June-September period remained normal. According to the data from the IMD, India received 820 millimetres of rainfall, -6% below the LPA (1971-2020 period) of 868.6 mm in the June-September period. Among the four meteorologic subdivisions of the country, the rainfall deficit was the widest in the east-northeast subdivision which received 1,115 mm of rainfall — 18% below the normal of 1,367.4 mm of the LPA during June-September.
SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL (JUNE-SEPTEMBER) 2023
| SUBDIVISION | ACTUAL (IN MM) | NORMAL (IN MM) | DEPARTURE (IN %) FROM LONG-PERIOD AVERAGE |
| East and Northeast India | 1,115 | 1,367.3 | -18% |
| Northwest India | 593 | 587.6 | 1% |
| Central India | 981.7 | 978 | 0% |
| South Peninsula | 659 | 716.2 | -8% |
| Whole India | 820 | 868.6 | -6 |
Source: India Meteorological Department (IMD)
To read in Punjabi and Hindi, click below.