The June-September rainfall is likely to be 96-104% of LPA
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast southwest monsoon (June-September) rainfall over the country as a whole is most likely to be normal — 96-104 % of the long period average (LPA). Issuing a press release about the long-range forecast of the southwest monsoon on April 14, the IMD stated that quantitatively, the monsoon (June to September) rainfall is likely to be 99%of the LPA with a model error of ± 5%. Monsoon rainfall up to 20% more or below the LPA is considered normal.
The LPA of the season rainfall over the country as a whole for the period 1971-2020 is 87 cm. Earlier, the IMD used to consider the LPA of 88 cm of the 1961-2010 period. “All-India rainfall normal based on 1971-2020 (period) for the southwest monsoon season is 868.6 mm. It will replace the normal of 880.6 mm based on 1961-2010,” it said in the press release.
IMD stated that the spatial distribution suggests normal to above normal seasonal rainfall is most likely over many areas of northern parts of peninsular India and adjoining central India, over foothills of the Himalayas and some parts of northwest India. Below normal rainfall is likely over many areas of northeast India, some areas of Northwest India and southern parts of the south peninsula.
IMD will issue the updated forecasts for monsoon season rainfall in the last week of May. In addition to the April update, forecasts for monsoon season (June-September) rainfall for four geographical regions, monsoon core zone and forecast for June also will be issued.
In 2021, the southwest monsoon rainfall in the June-September period remained normal. According to the data from the IMD, India received 874.6 millimeters of rainfall, 1% below the LPA (1961-2010 period) of 880.6 mm in the June-September period. Among the four meteorological subdivisions of the country, the rainfall deficit was the widest in the east and northeast subdivision, which received 1,246.2 mm, which is 12% below the normal of 1,410.4 mm of the LPA during June-September.
SOUTHWEST MONSOON RAINFALL (JUNE-SEPTEMBER) 2021
| SUB-DIVISION | ACTUAL (IN MM) | NORMAL (IN MM) | DEPARTURE (IN %) FROM LONG-PERIOD AVERAGE |
| East and Northeast India | 1,246.2 | 1,410.4 | -12% |
| Northwest India | 575.9 | 599.5 | -4% |
| Central India | 1,012.5 | 976.6 | +4% |
| South Peninsular India | 804.2 | 726.2 | +11% |
| Whole India | 874.6 | 880.6 | -1% |
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ਦੱਖਣ-ਪੱਛਮੀ ਮੌਨਸੂਨ 2022 ਪੂਰਵ-ਅਨੁਮਾਨ
दक्षिण-पश्चिम मानसून 2022 पूर्वानुमान